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    2017年中國石墨電極行業市場深度調查分析

    市場分析 | 來源:中國磨料磨具網 | 發布日期:2017-10-31 查看次數:492

    核心提示:石墨電極是以石油焦、針狀焦為原料,煤瀝青作結合劑,經煅燒、配料、混捏、壓型、焙燒、石墨化、機加工等程序制造而成。根據其質量指標高低,可分為普通功率、高功率和超高功率,超高功率石墨電極占比近年不斷提升,2016 年占比已達 38。石墨電極下游主要包括電弧爐煉鋼、黃磷工業、磨料和工業硅等,其中電弧爐煉鋼占比石墨電極需求一半以上。據統計,超高功率石墨電極生產要依次經歷的流程和相應時間為:電極壓型(3

      石墨電極是以石油焦、針狀焦為原料,煤瀝青作結合劑,經煅燒、配料、混捏、壓型、焙燒、石墨化、機加工等程序制造而成。根據其質量指標高低,可分為普通功率、高功率和超高功率,超高功率石墨電極占比近年不斷提升,2016 年占比已達 38%。石墨電極下游主要包括電弧爐煉鋼、黃磷工業、磨料和工業硅等,其中電弧爐煉鋼占比石墨電極需求一半以上。

      據統計,超高功率石墨電極生產要依次經歷的流程和相應時間為:電極壓型(3 天)——焙燒(25 天)——浸漬(4 天)——再焙燒(15 天)——石墨化(15 天)——機加工、質檢(2 天)——成品包裝發貨(1 天),這意味著一批超高功率石墨電極從投料到產品出貨,不停頓生產最快產出周期也要 65 天,而一般正常生產周期為90 天左右。同時,由于電極接頭的生產比電極要多三個工序,其生產周期自然要更長。因此,綜合來看,石墨電極及接頭的合計產出周期或許長達半年。供給調整較長的滯后期,顯著增強了石墨電極價格的波動性,歷史上來看石墨電極價格表現經常直上直下。

      行政化調整方面,前期助漲本輪石墨電極漲價的環保限產因素,在后續階段依然是制約石墨電極供給釋放的重要因素。其中,環保部 2 月下達 2017 年北方供暖季(一般認為時間階段是 11.15-3.15),“2+26”城市相關炭素企業需停、限產,涉及地區包括河北、山東、山西、河南等,均是石墨電極產能分布較為集中區域。

      供給短期缺乏彈性,相較而言,需求波動更為頻繁,畢竟電爐鋼產量將直接跟隨電弧爐環節盈利而變動,而除了廢鋼價格上漲、鋼價下跌,維持漲勢的石墨電極價格本身也會阻礙電弧爐盈利提高。因此,預計終結本輪石墨電極漲價的更可能是需求因素,這最終將取決于電弧爐及鋼鐵冶煉環節整體盈利持續性。

      根據數據測算,2016 年我國石墨電極產能約為95.41 萬噸,總產量為 50.41 萬噸,產能利用率僅為 52.84%,表明當時我國石墨電極過剩程度嚴峻。

      長期來看,即便將未來電弧爐產能利用率提升、“中改電”等對于石墨電極需求增量因素全部考慮在內,我國石墨電極供給過剩狀態依然難改。在此,我們假設未來電弧爐煉鋼產能利用率持續保持在 90%左右,工業硅和黃磷等消耗石墨電極量與當前水平相同。綜合考慮電弧爐產能利用率提升、中改電等對于石墨電極需求增量并以 2016 年產能作為基礎,測算出未來石墨電極總量需求為 72-79 萬噸,對應行業產能利用率為 75%-83%。參考國際經驗,石墨電極行業產能利用率最高卻達92%,意味著行業過剩程度依然較大。因此,長期來看,石墨電極價格理當存在頂部區間。??

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