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    單晶來勢洶洶 黑硅將為多晶市場帶來救贖?

    市場分析 | 來源:中國磨料磨具網 | 發布日期:2017-11-22 查看次數:528

    核心提示:單晶、多晶產品的勢力消長一直是太陽能市場重要的觀察點,而單晶自2016年起藉著效率與成本優勢重回主流,多晶廠商為了尋求出路,使得金剛線切片搭配黑硅蝕刻處理的方案重新受到重視,不少廠商摩拳擦掌要在2017下半年推出相關產品在市場上一決勝負。回顧太陽能產業發展,單晶起初占了先機,之后由經濟實惠的多晶逆勢翻轉。然而,單晶硅晶圓持續擴產所推動的單晶整體成本下降,加上廠商的推廣以及政策倡導的帶動下,單晶

      單晶、多晶產品的勢力消長一直是太陽能市場重要的觀察點,而單晶自2016年起藉著效率與成本優勢重回主流,多晶廠商為了尋求出路,使得金剛線切片搭配黑硅蝕刻處理的方案重新受到重視,不少廠商摩拳擦掌要在2017下半年推出相關產品在市場上一決勝負。

      回顧太陽能產業發展,單晶起初占了先機,之后由經濟實惠的多晶逆勢翻轉。然而,單晶硅晶圓持續擴產所推動的單晶整體成本下降,加上領導廠商的推廣以及政策倡導的帶動下,單晶的市占率預計會從2015年約18%逐漸增加到2017年的30%以上。

      多晶發展遇瓶頸 金剛線切片勢在必行

      單晶產品之所以能重新取得優勢,除高效優勢之外,最主要的原因是多晶在轉換效率與降低成本方面遇上了瓶頸。多晶硅晶圓與電池透過技術改善來提升效率的空間逐漸縮小,在標準多晶電池制程中,傳統酸蝕刻技術處理后的表面平均反射率會比單晶來得高,造成多晶電池反射光的損耗較大;再加上多晶PERC的效率提升成效并不如單晶,導致在目前PERC技術席卷之時,多晶產品的發展受到了抑制。在成本方面,單晶在長晶、切片端都還能降低,多晶則因劇烈的價格競爭導致降低成本空間幾乎已經耗盡。

      效率/成本比的落后,讓多晶制造商感受到強大的競爭壓力。2016年,不少多晶企業就開始醞釀商業化金剛線切割多晶鑄錠的技術,并逐步解決了金剛線切割多晶鑄錠易斷線、碎片率高、切割速度慢等問題。相對的,硅料浪費減少、每公斤產出片數多、刀次增加的各種好處浮現,使得多晶硅晶圓每片成本可以大幅下降6~10美分,將成本競爭力轉弱為強。

      黑硅再起 技術路線明朗化

      盡管解決了金剛線切片的弱點,但傳統蝕刻制程并不適用于多晶金剛線切片的問題仍然存在。而黑硅技術正是解開金剛線切片這個寶藏的關鍵鑰匙。

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      圖1黑硅為多晶市場帶來求贖?

      扮演多晶未來發展關鍵的黑硅方式,其實是兩個技術的綜合體,包括了金剛線切割與表面蝕刻這兩大發展技術。金剛線切割能有效地降低成本,而表面蝕刻則是提升轉換效率的推手。結合這兩項技術的產品性價比提升了5.8%,堪稱是有史以來最大的幅度。黑硅后續發展更可以再繼續搭配PERC、雙面等技術,朝高效路線進展。

      從2016年至今,黑硅技術的發展歷經乾法、濕法應用,最后添加劑成為主流解決方案。至此黑硅的發展趨勢已經逐漸明朗,多晶黑硅電池片即將進入量產階段。

      就目前廠商積極投入來看,廠商已開始步入大規模黑硅技術取代的時程,EnergyTrend預估,金剛線切割到2019年就會幾乎全部轉換完成,而黑硅技術則會略晚半年時間左右。

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      圖2黑硅發展下多晶在太陽能市場額外取得的市占

      三大黑硅制程 各具優缺點

      比較黑硅三大制程的優缺點,乾法黑硅的提效效果最佳,且較濕法、添加劑法有更實際的量產實績,因此發展必定有其優勢。迭加金剛線切片、PERC以及乾法黑硅技術,符合太陽能發展的一貫手法,小幅的成本增加,持續穩定提升效率,成為乾法的最大優勢。然而,現階段乾法設備投資成本過高,降低大家接受的意愿,因此乾法黑硅需要在設備的性價比漸趨合理后,于2018年后才有機會擴大應用規模。

      乾法雖然商業化有所推遲,但發展仍然穩定可期;相較之下,濕法雖然較有成本優勢,然而制程相對復雜、且批次效率不穩,還有環保疑慮等問題,后續發展性的限制會較多。

      從今年的發展來看,采用添加劑的直接蝕刻方法最具競爭力方法。對多晶廠商而言,添加劑蝕刻無需增加任何設備就可以維持效率,封裝模組后維持目前270W的主流瓦數,搭配金剛線切片將帶來強大的性價比優勢。目前幾乎所有廠商都在研究直接蝕刻,2017年黑硅模組的出貨比例會在第3季起顯著增加,到2018年底有望達到8成的替換率。

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      圖3黑硅三大制程比一比

      結論

      多晶黑硅技術的出現,再次掀起了單、多晶的產品路線之爭。在長期的競爭中,已證明維持性價比優勢才能保住市場地位;在單晶性價比迎頭趕上的同時,黑硅技術在性價比上的長足進步,替多晶重新取回了市場平衡的機會。根據EnergyTrend的預估,多晶黑硅產品的考驗與突破將會在2017年下半年浮現,終端市場是否愿意敞開大門開始采用黑硅模組,將會是進入量產化的最后臨門一腳。

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