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    2018年上半年國內苯酚市場回顧及后期展望

    行業新聞 | 來源:中國磨料磨具網 | 發布日期:2018-07-06 查看次數:340

    核心提示:2018年上半年國內苯酚市場雖幾經沉浮,但相較2017年上半年整體走勢有較大的提升,特別是在二季度之初,受到國內酚酮裝置集中檢修的帶動,市場商談短期內迅速提升,華東市場高位商談已逼近2017年全年高點位。從2017-2018年上半年華東苯酚市場價格走勢對比圖來看,不論是從高價、低價以及均價,2018年上半年苯酚市場走勢均要高于2017年同期水平。據金聯創數據監測,2018年上半年,從波動幅度

      2018年上半年國內苯酚市場雖幾經沉浮,但相較2017年上半年整體走勢有較大的提升,特別是在二季度之初,受到國內酚酮裝置集中檢修的帶動,市場商談短期內迅速提升,華東市場高位商談已逼近2017年全年最高點位。

      從2017-2018年上半年華東苯酚市場價格走勢對比圖來看,不論是從最高價、最低價以及均價,2018年上半年苯酚市場走勢均要高于2017年同期水平。據金聯創數據監測,2018年上半年,從波動幅度來看,以華東市場為例,最高點達到10650元/噸,最低點在8800元/噸,總差價在1850元/噸,上半年均價在9576元/噸;2017年上半年最高點在9000元/噸,最低點在6400元/噸,上半年均價在7213元/噸。

      從2018年上半年國內苯酚市場整體走勢來看,大體可以分為“跌-漲-跌”三個階段。

      第一階段:商談低走消耗庫存

      由于2017年下半年的持續炒漲,2018年之初高位運行,苯酚市場達到萬元以上水平,但下游工廠成本轉嫁至終端滯緩,且進入采暖期后,天然氣供應緊張問題尤為突出,部分中小型企業開工水平受限,需求跟進乏力,加之為迎接春節小長假,部分下游工廠多選擇提前停車放假,特別是節后復工多延遲至正月十五之后,苯酚社會庫存不斷累積,供需基本面偏疲下,市場商談逐步走低,隨著華東苯酚市場低價觸及8800元/噸附近水平后,由于部分下游工廠逢低補倉,且石化企業整體盈利空間較前期有所收窄,穩價意向持堅,春節后至3月中旬市場多陷入低價消耗庫存的階段。

      第二階段:反傾銷立案調查結合酚酮工廠集中檢修快速拉漲

      首先,經過3月份的低價走貨,春節期間以來石化企業累計庫存逐步消化,下游工廠的開工情況也逐漸好轉,其次,3月26日,對原產于美國、歐盟、韓國、日本和泰國的進口苯酚進行反傾銷立案調查,場內炒漲氛圍漸起,業者多持謹慎樂觀預期,再者,國內酚酮裝置年內例行檢修多集中于4、5月份,且日本三井化學位于新加坡的酚酮裝置4月初停車檢修至5月底,泰國PTT酚酮裝置檢修亦放在2季度,加之印度Deepak Phenolics公司位于Dahej Gujarat新建酚酮裝置投產計劃放在6月份,印度地區需求強勁。反傾銷立案調查消息不斷發酵,供應面趨緊,且需求好轉,均成為支撐苯酚市場快速走高的利好因素,苯酚市場商談快速拉漲,至4月底,華東部分商談達到10600-10650元/噸的高位水平。

      第三階段:環保重壓下跌勢難止

      5月初,繼匯豐股份事件后,又曝出有企業私設排污,且連云港灌云、灌南兩地化工園區全面停工。自5月30日起,6個中央環境保護督察組陸續進駐河北、江蘇、河南、廣東、等10省,開展環保督察“回頭看”,為期一個月。環保嚴查,下游傳統的磨具磨料、耐火材料、酚醛膠合板、泡沫板及保溫板等工廠開工不足,特別是上合峰會在青島舉行期間,山東周邊的部分苯酚下游工廠開工均存在一定的降負或停車情況,需求面較為乏力,但國內酚酮裝置年內例行檢修多已結束,整體開工負荷較前期有所提升,加上中海殼牌新建酚酮裝置產能釋放,供需壓力增大,市場商談呈現跌跌不休的狀態。臨近6月底,市場商談仍未有明確的止跌信號,維持摸索探底。

      后市行情預測

      對于三季度市場走勢情況,業者仍難有較為樂觀的預期,主要關注下游需求恢復及酚酮工廠開工狀況。從供應面來看,國內酚酮裝置年內例行檢修多已結束,后期暫未有較為明確的檢修計劃,加之中海殼牌酚酮裝置已進入正常運行階段,供應面相對寬松。需求面來看,環保嚴查仍在繼續,下游需求恢復情況仍有待進一步關注,且7、8月份,天氣較為炎熱,仍處于苯酚的需求淡季,加之印度Deepak Phenolics公司位于Dahej Gujarat新建酚酮裝置已投產,后期出口至印度地區的貨源將有所縮減。綜合來看,供需基本面偏弱,市場仍存一定走低空間,但考慮目前價格處于年內相對低位,且酚酮工廠整體盈利空間下降,市場在8800-8900元/噸附近低位震蕩后存一定反彈機會。后市仍需密切關注下游需求恢復及供應面裝置變化情況。

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